The waiting time problem in a model hominin population
https://reasonandscience.catsboard.com/t2585-the-waiting-time-problem-in-a-model-hominin-population
Behe The edge of evolution 2007 4
The book "edge of evolution" is principally about the probability of new protein-protein binding sites arising by chance and necessity. Experimental evidence (mostly chloroquine resistance) shows such protein-protein binding sites to be difficult to evolve by chance mechanisms. He says the empirical (extrapolation) of the "edge" of evolution is no more than two coordinated protein-protein binding sites could have evolved in a lineage in all the time available on earth. The flagellum has perhaps dozens of such sites.
It is a quantitative argument.
Recall the example of sickle cell disease. The sickle cell mutation is both a life saver and a life destroyer. It fends off malaria, but can lead to sickle cell disease. However,hemoglobin C-Harlem has all the benefits of sickle, but none of its fatal drawbacks. So in western and central Africa, a population of humans that had normal hemoglobin would be worst off, a population that had half normal and half sickle would be better off, and a population that had half normal and half C-Harlem would be best of all. But if that’s the case, why bother with sickle hemoglobin? Why shouldn’t evolution just go from the worst to the best case directly? Why not just produce the C-Harlem mutation straightaway and avoid all the misery of sickle? The problem with going straight from normal hemoglobin to hemoglobin C-Harlem is that, rather than walking smoothly up the stairs, evolution would have to jump a step. C-Harlem differs from normal hemoglobin by two amino acids. In order to go straight from regular hemoglobin to C-Harlem, the right mutations would have to show up simultaneously in positions 6 and 73 of the beta chain of hemoglobin. Why is that so hard? Switching those two amino acids at the same time would be very difficult for the same reason that developing resistance to a cocktail of drugs is difficult for malaria—the odds against getting two needed steps at once are the multiple of the odds for each step happening on its own. What are those odds? Very low. The human genome is composed of over three billion nucleotides. Yet only a hundred million nucleotides seem to be critical, coding for proteins or necessary control features. The mutation rate in humans (and many other species) is around this same number; that is, approximately one in a hundred million nucleotides is changed in a baby compared to its parents (in other words, a total of about thirty changes per generation in the baby’s three-billion-nucleotide genome, one of which might be in coding or control regions). In order to get the sickle mutation, we can’t change just any nucleotide in human DNA; the change has to occur at exactly the right spot. So the probability that one of those mutations will be in the right place is one out of a hundred million. Put another way, only one out of every hundred million babies is born with a new mutation that gives it sickle hemoglobin. Over a hundred generations in a population of a million people, we would expect the mutation to occur once by chance. That’s within the range of what can be done by mutation/selection.
To get hemoglobin C-Harlem, in addition to the sickle mutation we have to get the other mutation in the beta chain, the one at position 73. The odds of getting the second mutation in exactly the right spot are again about one in a hundred million. So the odds of getting both mutations right, to give hemoglobin C Harlem in one generation in an individual whose parents have normal hemoglobin, are about a hundred million times a hundred million (10^16). On average, then, nature needs about that many babies in order to find just one that has the right double mutation. With a generation time of ten years and an average population size of a million people, on average it should take about a hundred billion years for that particular mutation to arise—more than the age of the universe.
Hemoglobin C-Harlem would be advantageous if it were widespread in Africa, but it isn’t. It was discovered in a single family in the United States, where it doesn’t offer any protection against malaria for the simple reason that malaria has been eradicated in North America. Natural selection, therefore, may not select the mutation, and it may easily disappear by happenstance if the members of the family don’t have children, or if the family’s children don’t inherit a copy of the C-Harlem gene. It’s well known to evolutionary biologists that the majority even of helpful mutations are lost by chance before they get an opportunity to spread in the population. If that happens with C-Harlem, we may have to wait for another hundred million carriers of the sickle gene to be born before another new C-Harlem mutation arises.
Gunter Bechly Fossil Discontinuities: Refutation of Darwinism & Confirmation of Intelligent Design Oct 11, 2018
Michael Behe discovered the waiting time problem as a problem for darwinism in his book the age of evolution and he didn't make a mathematical calculation but he looked at the empirical data from malaria drug resistance and what he found is that a lot of the malaria drugs resistance developed very quickly in a few years because only point mutations were necessary but in the case of chloroquine the drug chloroquine it took several decades and the reason was it was discovered later that there you needed a coordinated mutations to mutations neutral for each other had to come together to produce this kind of resistance against chloroquine and then he simply transpose the data if you look at the vast population size of malaria microbes compared to the population size of vertebrates and their short generation time and you transpose these data he came up to the hypothesis that invertebrates were a single coordinated change he would have to need longer than the existence of the whole universe 10 to the power of 15 years now this is of course would be a problem and for example in human evolution we have all these nice fossils so if the signal coordinated change would take longer than the universe then then it would be game over so of course evolutionary biologists tried to repute me
and indeed in 2008 the earth and Schmidt they published a paper in genetics where they said they have refuted his result was completely unrealistic they did they made a mathematical calculation based on the methodological apparatus of population genetics and simulations and they came with a number of 260 million years. Wonderful this is really much shorter than Big E the problem is we have only 6 million years available since the splitting of the human lineage from the chimp lineage so that is what evolutionary biologists say is the time needed for a single coordinated mutation and you have to keep in mind this is a mathematical model which always involves simplifications and simplifications may involve errors so what is more likely that the empirical data from B from a lot of drug resistance are closer to the truth or the mathematical simulation I would suggest that rather this ten to the power of 15 is closer to the the real constraint in nature but anyway we arrive at times that are much too long for for evolution to occur the available windows of time a second study by San thought can basically do the same results and the problems
also if you compare for example children a with human DNA it's always there are they're so similar 95 percent similarity thus these five percent differences means millions of differences in in base pairs and these differences have to arise by mutations and have to spread in the population so you have to accommodate even these 5% difference in this available window of time of six million years and it doesn't add up in population genetics.
Rick Durrett Waiting for Two Mutations: With Applications to Regulatory Sequence Evolution and the Limits of Darwinian Evolution 2008 Nov 3
We now show that two coordinated changes that turn off one regulatory sequence and turn on another without either mutant becoming fixed are unlikely to occur in the human population. Theorem 1 predicts a mean waiting time of216 million years.
John Sanford The waiting time problem in a model hominin population 17 September 2015 1
Functional information is normally communicated using specific, context-dependent strings of symbolic characters. This is true within the human realm (texts and computer programs), and also within the biological realm (nucleic acids and proteins). In biology, strings of nucleotides encode much of the information within living cells. How do such information-bearing nucleotide strings arise and become established?
Methods
This paper uses comprehensive numerical simulation to understand what types of nucleotide strings can realistically be established via the mutation/selection process, given a reasonable timeframe. The program Mendel’s Accountant realistically simulates the mutation/selection process, and was modified so that a starting string of nucleotides could be specified, and a corresponding target string of nucleotides could be specified. We simulated a classic pre-human hominin population of at least 10,000 individuals, with a generation time of 20 years, and with very strong selection (50 % selective elimination). Random point mutations were generated within the starting string. Whenever an instance of the target string arose, all individuals carrying the target string were assigned a specified reproductive advantage. When natural selection had successfully amplified an instance of the target string to the point of fixation, the experiment was halted, and the waiting time statistics were tabulated. Using this methodology we tested the effect of mutation rate, string length, fitness benefit, and population size on waiting time to fixation.
Results
Biologically realistic numerical simulations revealed that a population of this type required inordinately long waiting times to establish even the shortest nucleotide strings. To establish a string of two nucleotides required on average 84 million years. To establish a string of five nucleotides required on average 2 billion years. We found that waiting times were reduced by higher mutation rates, stronger fitness benefits, and larger population sizes. However, even using the most generous feasible parameters settings, the waiting time required to establish any specific nucleotide string within this type of population was consistently prohibitive.
Conclusion
We show that the waiting time problem is a significant constraint on the macroevolution of the classic hominin population. Routine establishment of specific beneficial strings of two or more nucleotides becomes very problematic.
More readings:
https://evolutionnews.org/2016/08/the_origin_of_m/
1. https://tbiomed.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12976-015-0016-z
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7w5QGqcnNs
3. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2581952/
4. https://3lib.net/book/2514862/707789
https://reasonandscience.catsboard.com/t2585-the-waiting-time-problem-in-a-model-hominin-population
Behe The edge of evolution 2007 4
The book "edge of evolution" is principally about the probability of new protein-protein binding sites arising by chance and necessity. Experimental evidence (mostly chloroquine resistance) shows such protein-protein binding sites to be difficult to evolve by chance mechanisms. He says the empirical (extrapolation) of the "edge" of evolution is no more than two coordinated protein-protein binding sites could have evolved in a lineage in all the time available on earth. The flagellum has perhaps dozens of such sites.
It is a quantitative argument.
Recall the example of sickle cell disease. The sickle cell mutation is both a life saver and a life destroyer. It fends off malaria, but can lead to sickle cell disease. However,hemoglobin C-Harlem has all the benefits of sickle, but none of its fatal drawbacks. So in western and central Africa, a population of humans that had normal hemoglobin would be worst off, a population that had half normal and half sickle would be better off, and a population that had half normal and half C-Harlem would be best of all. But if that’s the case, why bother with sickle hemoglobin? Why shouldn’t evolution just go from the worst to the best case directly? Why not just produce the C-Harlem mutation straightaway and avoid all the misery of sickle? The problem with going straight from normal hemoglobin to hemoglobin C-Harlem is that, rather than walking smoothly up the stairs, evolution would have to jump a step. C-Harlem differs from normal hemoglobin by two amino acids. In order to go straight from regular hemoglobin to C-Harlem, the right mutations would have to show up simultaneously in positions 6 and 73 of the beta chain of hemoglobin. Why is that so hard? Switching those two amino acids at the same time would be very difficult for the same reason that developing resistance to a cocktail of drugs is difficult for malaria—the odds against getting two needed steps at once are the multiple of the odds for each step happening on its own. What are those odds? Very low. The human genome is composed of over three billion nucleotides. Yet only a hundred million nucleotides seem to be critical, coding for proteins or necessary control features. The mutation rate in humans (and many other species) is around this same number; that is, approximately one in a hundred million nucleotides is changed in a baby compared to its parents (in other words, a total of about thirty changes per generation in the baby’s three-billion-nucleotide genome, one of which might be in coding or control regions). In order to get the sickle mutation, we can’t change just any nucleotide in human DNA; the change has to occur at exactly the right spot. So the probability that one of those mutations will be in the right place is one out of a hundred million. Put another way, only one out of every hundred million babies is born with a new mutation that gives it sickle hemoglobin. Over a hundred generations in a population of a million people, we would expect the mutation to occur once by chance. That’s within the range of what can be done by mutation/selection.
To get hemoglobin C-Harlem, in addition to the sickle mutation we have to get the other mutation in the beta chain, the one at position 73. The odds of getting the second mutation in exactly the right spot are again about one in a hundred million. So the odds of getting both mutations right, to give hemoglobin C Harlem in one generation in an individual whose parents have normal hemoglobin, are about a hundred million times a hundred million (10^16). On average, then, nature needs about that many babies in order to find just one that has the right double mutation. With a generation time of ten years and an average population size of a million people, on average it should take about a hundred billion years for that particular mutation to arise—more than the age of the universe.
Hemoglobin C-Harlem would be advantageous if it were widespread in Africa, but it isn’t. It was discovered in a single family in the United States, where it doesn’t offer any protection against malaria for the simple reason that malaria has been eradicated in North America. Natural selection, therefore, may not select the mutation, and it may easily disappear by happenstance if the members of the family don’t have children, or if the family’s children don’t inherit a copy of the C-Harlem gene. It’s well known to evolutionary biologists that the majority even of helpful mutations are lost by chance before they get an opportunity to spread in the population. If that happens with C-Harlem, we may have to wait for another hundred million carriers of the sickle gene to be born before another new C-Harlem mutation arises.
Gunter Bechly Fossil Discontinuities: Refutation of Darwinism & Confirmation of Intelligent Design Oct 11, 2018
Michael Behe discovered the waiting time problem as a problem for darwinism in his book the age of evolution and he didn't make a mathematical calculation but he looked at the empirical data from malaria drug resistance and what he found is that a lot of the malaria drugs resistance developed very quickly in a few years because only point mutations were necessary but in the case of chloroquine the drug chloroquine it took several decades and the reason was it was discovered later that there you needed a coordinated mutations to mutations neutral for each other had to come together to produce this kind of resistance against chloroquine and then he simply transpose the data if you look at the vast population size of malaria microbes compared to the population size of vertebrates and their short generation time and you transpose these data he came up to the hypothesis that invertebrates were a single coordinated change he would have to need longer than the existence of the whole universe 10 to the power of 15 years now this is of course would be a problem and for example in human evolution we have all these nice fossils so if the signal coordinated change would take longer than the universe then then it would be game over so of course evolutionary biologists tried to repute me
and indeed in 2008 the earth and Schmidt they published a paper in genetics where they said they have refuted his result was completely unrealistic they did they made a mathematical calculation based on the methodological apparatus of population genetics and simulations and they came with a number of 260 million years. Wonderful this is really much shorter than Big E the problem is we have only 6 million years available since the splitting of the human lineage from the chimp lineage so that is what evolutionary biologists say is the time needed for a single coordinated mutation and you have to keep in mind this is a mathematical model which always involves simplifications and simplifications may involve errors so what is more likely that the empirical data from B from a lot of drug resistance are closer to the truth or the mathematical simulation I would suggest that rather this ten to the power of 15 is closer to the the real constraint in nature but anyway we arrive at times that are much too long for for evolution to occur the available windows of time a second study by San thought can basically do the same results and the problems
also if you compare for example children a with human DNA it's always there are they're so similar 95 percent similarity thus these five percent differences means millions of differences in in base pairs and these differences have to arise by mutations and have to spread in the population so you have to accommodate even these 5% difference in this available window of time of six million years and it doesn't add up in population genetics.
Rick Durrett Waiting for Two Mutations: With Applications to Regulatory Sequence Evolution and the Limits of Darwinian Evolution 2008 Nov 3
We now show that two coordinated changes that turn off one regulatory sequence and turn on another without either mutant becoming fixed are unlikely to occur in the human population. Theorem 1 predicts a mean waiting time of216 million years.
John Sanford The waiting time problem in a model hominin population 17 September 2015 1
Functional information is normally communicated using specific, context-dependent strings of symbolic characters. This is true within the human realm (texts and computer programs), and also within the biological realm (nucleic acids and proteins). In biology, strings of nucleotides encode much of the information within living cells. How do such information-bearing nucleotide strings arise and become established?
Methods
This paper uses comprehensive numerical simulation to understand what types of nucleotide strings can realistically be established via the mutation/selection process, given a reasonable timeframe. The program Mendel’s Accountant realistically simulates the mutation/selection process, and was modified so that a starting string of nucleotides could be specified, and a corresponding target string of nucleotides could be specified. We simulated a classic pre-human hominin population of at least 10,000 individuals, with a generation time of 20 years, and with very strong selection (50 % selective elimination). Random point mutations were generated within the starting string. Whenever an instance of the target string arose, all individuals carrying the target string were assigned a specified reproductive advantage. When natural selection had successfully amplified an instance of the target string to the point of fixation, the experiment was halted, and the waiting time statistics were tabulated. Using this methodology we tested the effect of mutation rate, string length, fitness benefit, and population size on waiting time to fixation.
Results
Biologically realistic numerical simulations revealed that a population of this type required inordinately long waiting times to establish even the shortest nucleotide strings. To establish a string of two nucleotides required on average 84 million years. To establish a string of five nucleotides required on average 2 billion years. We found that waiting times were reduced by higher mutation rates, stronger fitness benefits, and larger population sizes. However, even using the most generous feasible parameters settings, the waiting time required to establish any specific nucleotide string within this type of population was consistently prohibitive.
Conclusion
We show that the waiting time problem is a significant constraint on the macroevolution of the classic hominin population. Routine establishment of specific beneficial strings of two or more nucleotides becomes very problematic.
More readings:
https://evolutionnews.org/2016/08/the_origin_of_m/
1. https://tbiomed.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12976-015-0016-z
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7w5QGqcnNs
3. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2581952/
4. https://3lib.net/book/2514862/707789
Last edited by Otangelo on Fri Aug 19, 2022 11:24 am; edited 2 times in total